Curse

Acehole2006 · Dec 19, 2011, 03:58 PM // 15:58

Keeping on subject of polar bear and Chances etc.....

How many do you think drop a day? or throughout the whole event.

Reformed · Dec 19, 2011, 04:49 PM // 16:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acehole2006

...or throughout the whole event.

Fewer than 50.

Hanok Odbrook · Dec 19, 2011, 09:48 PM // 21:48

Does it even matter? You either get one or not. The problem is the drop rate is just too low for a yearly event. It takes it to the point of absurdity that is not even remotely amusing.

Hanok

IattackU · Dec 19, 2011, 09:50 PM // 21:50

Last Wintersday I saw a discussion on deleting your .DAT files and then going to do the quest in hopes that when you load into the map, you would know the contents of the chest because you would have to load the .DAT file for the noise of the MPB. It was an interesting theory but there was a debate whether the chest contents were determined when you clicked the chest or when you loaded the map or when it spawned etc. Was just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the idea or has there been any light shed on the way end chests work? It's a great theory.

Olle · Dec 19, 2011, 09:52 PM // 21:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hanok Odbrook

Does it even matter? You either get one or not. The problem is the drop rate is just too low for a yearly event. It takes it to the point of absurdity that is not even remotely amusing.

Hanok

agree 110%

drop rate is so low.
Celestials ? 0.5 %~~

Polarbear? 0,02%

Zero point zero two
It's so low i cant eaven describe it.

----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by IattackU

-snip-

That sounds like an funny idea, really, someone needs to test this out

(sorry for double post, noone has ever told me how to MQ)
(If needed ill delete this post)
(guru is so amazing so it did this itself, i didnt eaven merge anything O.o)
(will stop doing this now)
(okay, now)

shodannet · Dec 19, 2011, 11:25 PM // 23:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rushin Roulette

The best way I found is to do the runs with 3 accounts and AFKing the final part.

I thought about doing this, but then I like doing other stuff during the AFK. But then I could double my gifts/shards output :O

Tullzinski · Dec 23, 2011, 12:34 AM // 00:34

After doing SOS since 2007 I finally hit the lottery a mini polar bear dropped for me. Each year I would take 250 cupcakes and 250 pumpkin pies and usually never ran out of either stack. It was a decent way to track my approx runs. Estimate between 200 to 250 runs each year over wintersday festival. So around 800 to 900 runs the MPB dropped.

Did not do many runs this year because of Skyrim. Only did 32 runs this year, after that 32nd run I had to clean my shorts. Do not give up trying

mpb3.JPG

added a pic for warcry

Shadowmoon · Dec 23, 2011, 02:31 AM // 02:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by IattackU

Last Wintersday I saw a discussion on deleting your .DAT files and then going to do the quest in hopes that when you load into the map, you would know the contents of the chest because you would have to load the .DAT file for the noise of the MPB. It was an interesting theory but there was a debate whether the chest contents were determined when you clicked the chest or when you loaded the map or when it spawned etc. Was just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the idea or has there been any light shed on the way end chests work? It's a great theory.

I can tell you that the DAT is updated before loot is determined. When the design a weapon skin were being added, the best way to determine if a dungeon had the new skin, the last level would have around 5 files to load representing the new drop being added for the game to display if it did drop.

Family Guy · Dec 23, 2011, 03:53 AM // 03:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tullzinski

MPB Win

Gratz! 230 runs and counting!

Thowra Wildfire · Dec 23, 2011, 05:24 AM // 05:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tullzinski

After doing SOS since 2007 I finally hit the lottery a mini polar bear dropped for me. Each year I would take 250 cupcakes and 250 pumpkin pies and usually never ran out of either stack. It was a decent way to track my approx runs. Estimate between 200 to 250 runs each year over wintersday festival. So around 800 to 900 runs the MPB dropped.

Did not do many runs this year because of Skyrim. Only did 32 runs this year, after that 32nd run I had to clean my shorts. Do not give up trying

Congrats! Happy to hear of someone finally getting one

WarcryOfTruth · Dec 23, 2011, 05:32 AM // 05:32

Is he not going to post his screenshot of it? Otherwise how can we believe he got it? o.o

bhagwad · Dec 23, 2011, 05:58 AM // 05:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth

That isn't entirely true. You're following gambler's fallacy, which is essentially saying that if you lose consistently at an improbable event, then you're bound to win in the future. The events are unaffected by each other. It's like saying if you flip a coin 5000 times and get 5000 heads, you're bound to get Tails on the 5001st flip. Your odds are always, and will always be 0.02%.

This is not the gambler's fallacy. He's not assuming that the probability of the next drop is anything but 0.02%. This is simple mathematics. The probability of getting a rare drop at least once obviously goes up the more times you try. It'll never be 100% naturally.

This is simple probability mathematics. The gambler's fallacy is just that - a fallacy.

Acehole2006 · Dec 23, 2011, 07:32 PM // 19:32

this is my 4th year at trying and I do about thousand runs each year, however im multi accounting this year and have done thousand runs already so on about 5000 total now and nothing

.

Hugh Jarse · Dec 24, 2011, 12:43 AM // 00:43

Since lim 0.98^n =0
n→∞
then if we have an infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of keyboards with an infinite number of cupcakes, we may still get one.

103 blank runs so far.

AmoebaInfectionTechnique · Dec 24, 2011, 12:49 AM // 00:49

I think you can get it in your first run. LOL.

byteme! · Dec 24, 2011, 04:24 AM // 04:24

I got my mini polar 2 years ago on the "25th" of December. I did like 600+ runs with 2 accounts. Tried a similar amount last year got nothing and realized I'm wasting my time. With the amount of effort put in I could've done other things to make money and just buy the %$#'n thing. For the last 3 months I have completely stopped playing. Regardless what updates come about what I`ve realized in 6 years of GW is I`m playing and doing the same repetitive crap everyday and there`s a severe lack of compelling content worth doing.

Acehole2006 · Dec 24, 2011, 08:40 AM // 08:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by byteme!

I got my mini polar 2 years ago on the "25th" of December. I did like 600+ runs with 2 accounts. Tried a similar amount last year got nothing and realized I'm wasting my time. With the amount of effort put in I could've done other things to make money and just buy the %$#'n thing. For the last 3 months I have completely stopped playing. Regardless what updates come about what I`ve realized in 6 years of GW is I`m playing and doing the same repetitive crap everyday and there`s a severe lack of compelling content worth doing.

While im not going to argue with you as its your view, however I feel totally different, I still enjoy Guild Wars and find myself with not enough time to do the things that I want to do.

While I agree you can buy this thing, I actually would not pay the price of it and would rather go without. But I wil still try to get it for my HoM while the quest is active.

Swingline · Dec 24, 2011, 08:57 PM // 20:57

Agree that .02% is too low of a drop rate for an item available 2 weeks out of the year. They should revamp Secret Lair of the Snowman as a snowball map and add the MPB to the end chest.

Quote:

Originally Posted by byteme!

I got my mini polar 2 years ago on the "25th" of December. I did like 600+ runs with 2 accounts. Tried a similar amount last year got nothing and realized I'm wasting my time. With the amount of effort put in I could've done other things to make money and just buy the %$#'n thing. For the last 3 months I have completely stopped playing. Regardless what updates come about what I`ve realized in 6 years of GW is I`m playing and doing the same repetitive crap everyday and there`s a severe lack of compelling content worth doing.

99% of all gamers fall into this trap. They become obsessed with a game to the point their doing ridiculous things such as grinding repetitive content.

GWs is no where near a bad game, people just dedicate too much time on a single game and burn themselves out. The trick is to not give into the addictive e-peen traps with multiplayer games. People are so eager to be first and/or the best that it ruins the game for almost everyone trying to be casual, including themselves.

Showtime · Dec 24, 2011, 09:56 PM // 21:56

The low drop rate is fine since the goal is to keep people trying for the lottery. I wish Halloween had a mini with similar drop rate.

I just disagree with them giving out really cute mini's with such low drop rates or making them ultra rare like the panda. I wish they would have had the foresight to make polar bears and pandas white bday gifts so that people who want cute can have it and collectors/power traders can still have their collectable whip tails etc. (Yes it's subjective, but trust me, more people think those bears are cuter.) Making ultra cute minis ultra rare just leaves tons of people who would love to have one, but will never be able to afford it.

GL I hope something glitches and 1000's start dropping and everyone who wants one gets one this Christmas.

ruksak · Dec 24, 2011, 11:25 PM // 23:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Showtime

The low drop rate is fine since the goal is to keep people trying for the lottery. I wish Halloween had a mini with similar drop rate.

I just disagree with them giving out really cute mini's with such low drop rates or making them ultra rare like the panda. I wish they would have had the foresight to make polar bears and pandas white bday gifts so that people who want cute can have it and collectors/power traders can still have their collectable whip tails etc. (Yes it's subjective, but trust me, more people think those bears are cuter.) Making ultra cute minis ultra rare just leaves tons of people who would love to have one, but will never be able to afford it.

GL I hope something glitches and 1000's start dropping and everyone who wants one gets one this Christmas.

What makes something special is its rarity. Taking that away and the MPB becomes an undesirable. I'm not sure if Anet had "cute" in mind when considering drop rates.

There's a lot of items people would love to have but can never afford them. I'm not trying to sound harsh, just straight shootin.

What I'm seeing in this thread is a lesson in futility. Contrary to popular belief, buying more than one PowerBall ticket doesn't increase your chances of winning. Why on earth would anyone want to do a thousand or more runs for the right to have a barely visible trinket standing next to their char...? Do a few runs here and there, test your luck, but don't burn yourself into the ground trying to beat the odds. Unless you consider that fun, but from the sounds of it, it ain't much fun.